Based on the current progress for Windows 10 version 1903, due to arrive next spring, it now looks like the fall update for the OS will arrive around Sept. 10 or Sept. 24.

Microsoft last week released the first preview of what will become Windows 10 version 1903, the opening feature upgrade of next year, slated to ship in the spring.

The debut of what Microsoft calls the “Skip Ahead” build for Windows 10 1903 also hints that the release of this fall’s upgrade, aka 1809, will take place in September. If so, it would be the first time since late-2015 that the actual delivery date matched the numerical label.

On July 25, Microsoft forked the 1809 preview of Windows 10 – as it’s done before when a feature upgrade approaches – so developers could continue to deliver betas for that build while also beginning to work on the next-in-line, 1903. (Microsoft uses a yymm labeling system to mark its Windows 10 feature upgrades; 1809 should indicate a September 2018 release, while 1903 would be a March 2019 release.)

When it forks preview code, Microsoft provides the even-further-in-the-future build, in this case, 1903, to Windows Insider participants who earlier volunteered for Skip Ahead. As the current feature upgrade gets close to release, Microsoft switches Skip Ahead users to the following upgrade, so that engineers can start collecting feedback on that version even as they keep polishing the one set to launch soon. The bulk of Insiders remain on the latter.

Think of the Skip Ahead debut as a warning bell, like the one rung at track meets when racers start the final lap: When Microsoft begins to ship Skip Ahead code, it’s close to wrapping up the impending feature upgrade.

In 2017, as Windows 10 1709 (aka “Fall Creators Update”) neared completion, Microsoft first forked the preview code and distributed a different build to Skip Aheaders on Aug. 31. Windows 10 1709 began its release cycle on Oct. 17, or 47 days later. With this year’s version 1803, Skip Ahead debuted Feb. 14, or 75 days before the April 30 release of that upgrade.

(Windows 10 1803’s original launch date, reportedly April 10 – which was one of two dates Computerworld had forecast in February – was postponed by 20 days after a deal-breaking bug was uncovered at nearly the last minute.)

For one estimate of the release date for Windows 10 1809, Computerworld added 47 days to July 25, arriving at Sept. 10. A second estimate was generated by adding 61 days – the average of the two previous Skip Ahead triggers – to July 25, resulting in a Sept. 24 rollout.

Because the last three feature upgrades launched on either a Monday or Tuesday – April 11, 2017 for version 1703; Oct. 17, 2017 for 1709; April 30, 2018 for 1803 – Sept. 10 or 11 would be the most likely release dates for 1809, absent a show-stopping problem like the bug before 1803’s launch. Computerworld’s alternate forecast would be September 24 or 25, also a Monday/Tuesday combination, because it would match the previous upgrades’ average time-between-Skip-Ahead-and-release.

If Microsoft does release Windows 10 1809 in September, it would be the first time since November 2015 that the company has matched delivery date and the upgrade’s label. Version 1511 debuted Nov. 10, 2015. The four subsequent upgrades, 1607, 1703, 1709 and 1803, all missed their release months by between 2 and 30 days. (Version 1607 came the nearest, releasing Aug. 2, 2016.)

Although Microsoft has never expressly tied itself to March and September release months – in a support document, it gives itself wiggle room by stating that feature upgrades will be released “twice per year, around March and September [emphasis added]” – the disconnect between release and numerical designation has always seemed odd.

Issuing feature upgrades during the appointed months would be a sign that Microsoft has gotten a better handle on the rapid development tempo it has at times struggled with executing. It would also be a step toward a more predictable schedule, which was the point of the pledge it made over a year ago to issue a pair of feature upgrades annually.

The latest numbers from the company show businesses are close to schedule to move away from Windows 7 before the older OS retires in early 2020.

Windows10 Enterprise

Microsoft on Tuesday said that some 200 million enterprise workers now run Windows 10, a sign that corporations and other businesses are close to schedule to scrub Windows 7 from their machines before that older OS retires in about 20 months, an analyst argued.

“The 200 million resonates with me, based on what I’m hearing from clients,” said Stephen Kleynhans of Gartner Research. Migrations to Windows 10, he added, are progressing “pretty aggressively.”

Joe Belfiore, a corporate vice president who leads the Windows 10 team, revealed the number at Microsoft’s Build developers conference Tuesday. “Right now, there are over 200 million people in corporate accounts using Windows 10,” Belfiore said as he claimed deployment is “really ramping up” in the enterprise. “We’ve seen that [Windows 10] adoption rate increase now at 79% year-over-year growth.”

The day before, Microsoft contended that “nearly 700 million” devices are running Windows 10 worldwide. On that basis, enterprises accounted for less than 30% of all copies of Windows 10.

(Although the two numbers – Belfiore’s 200 million people using Windows 10 in corporate settings and Microsoft’s 700 million devices powered by the operating system – measured two different things, it’s not uncommon for Microsoft to obfuscate this way to prevent direct comparisons. In actuality, because Microsoft typically sells licenses on a per user basis, with multiple devices allowed for each user, 200 million people may be using more than that number of Windows 10 devices.)

While neither the percentage nor the 200 million are to be sneezed at, the former is significantly less than the average overall for commercial PCs, which have historically accounted for more than half – 55% has been an often-cited figure – of all personal computers.

And while Kleynhans did not dispute Microsoft’s claim of 200 people running Windows 10 in the enterprise, he sounded a bit disappointed in the number. “Is it a low number? It’s a little behind where I thought it would be,” Kleynhans said, noting that he expected it to be around 250 million by this point, perhaps even close to 300 million.

That 2009 operating system will fall off Microsoft’s support list on Jan. 14, 2020, meaning that while Windows 7 will continue to work as before, the Redmond, Wash. will stop distributing security updates to it.

It’s unrealistic to expect that all commercial customers will have purged Windows 7 by the retirement date, Kleynhans said, pointing out that he has recently spoken with clients who still run some instances of Windows XP (retired from support in 2014) and even Windows 98 (2006).

“What we [Gartner] expect is that enterprises will get to the 85%-90% level by the deadline,” Kleynhans said of the percentage of corporate devices shifted to Windows 7, “maybe even a little higher than that.” Nothing that’s happened has changed that estimate, he added.

“There are always laggards,” Kleynhans said.

According to other metrics, there may be a considerable number of them.

Estimates from analytics vendors, including U.S.-based Net Applications, which measure user and usage shares, signal that a large resorvoir of Windows 7 users will remain after the operating system’s retirement in 20 months. Net Applications’ latest data, for example, drove a Computerworld forecast that of the world’s Windows personal computers – all the PCs, not just those in the enterprise – 42% would still be running Windows 7 in January 2020, a much larger percentage than the 29% powered by Windows XP when that edition fell off the support list in April 2014.

In the end, large organizations will do what it takes to get off Windows 7 and onto Windows 10 by the former’s support cut-off date. The 200 million touted by Belfiore this week will be quite different a year from now, Kleynhans was certain.

“The speed with which I see Windows 10 moving now, it’s not going to be an issue,” he said.

Windows 10 deployment is, like previous iterations of the OS, on a timetable not of its own making. Instead, because of the vagarities of Microsoft’s historical release schedule and corporate acceptance (or rejection) of some editions, there is a clock ticking on Windows 10 because of the impending retirement of the current corporate standard, Windows 7.

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